Deadline: Tuesday 16 December at 23:59 GMT
AI is already transforming education in ways both positive and negative—and the pace is accelerating. This forecasting competition invites anyone with a thoughtful perspective—educators, researchers, technologists, students, and beyond—to make specific, defendable forecasts about AI’s impact on education by the end of 2028 (roughly the same span between ChatGPT’s release and today).
Schools, universities, teachers, and students are doing their best to navigate this shifting landscape, but we need better collective intelligence about what’s actually coming. By aggregating predictions from hundreds of informed participants, we create a richer picture of possible futures.
Forecasts will be reviewed by a panel of expert judges, and the best forecasts will be shared publicly and win cash prizes.
Guidance For Applicants
Making Strong Predictions: Avoid extreme predictions (0%, 100%) unless you have compelling structural arguments, and avoid hedging around 50%. Make clear, reasoned predictions that reflect your genuine assessment of likelihood.
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All Perspectives Welcome: We have no preference for optimistic versus pessimistic forecasts. We also ask you to separate probability from desirability, so you can argue that a scenario can be likely yet harmful, or beneficial yet unlikely. Submissions are evaluated on clarity of reasoning and quality of argumentation.
Geographic Focus: Unless a question specifies otherwise, make predictions at the national level. You can choose any country—just declare it clearly. National-level predictions make it easier to compare submissions and ground forecasts in available data.
Each Submission Must Include:
An analytical essay
- Maximum length 1,000 words.
- Figures and data are not required, but may be included and do not count against the word limit.
A short voice or video note summarizing your core argument:
- Maximum length of 5-minutes, shorter lengths welcome.
- This recording will not be shared outside the program team and judges without your express written consent.
